ExtremeTornadoTours.com

Posted At: October 13, 2008 @ 10:07 PM

Well the DVD of the year has finally arrived.

Posted At: October 12, 2008 @ 11:46 AM

Hurricane Norbert, which made landfall a few days ago on the southern Baja Peninsula, has weakened upper-level lapse rates and spread stabilizing cloud cover northeastward ahead of the trough now moving through the Southern Rockies.  This entrainment of Norbert in the southwesterly flow ahead of this trough can clearly be seen in the water vapor loops below, which begins with Norbert's landfall.  The consequence of this entrainment of warm tropical air aloft is a weakening of the upper-level lapse rates, despite unseasonably high low-level moisture values.  If Norbert failed to exist, today could be a very interesting severe weather setup across the Southern High Plains, with shear values more than adequate for supercells.   Now we'll be lucky to see any surface-based convection!!  Still though, lots of meteorology going on....

Posted At: October 10, 2008 @ 7:46 PM

Here is the promo video for Discovery Channel's "Storm Chasers", which will begin airing next Sunday, October 19 at 10:00 pm Eastern (7:00 pm Pacific).  Shown here is the probe deployment we had in the path of a tornado near Osborne, KS on May 29, 2008, which will be part of Episode 8.  Be sure to tune in next Sunday!  Meanwhile, this Sunday could be a storm chasing opportunity somewhere in the Plains...  I'll add a blog post about it when the new models are available tomorrow.

Posted At: October 8, 2008 @ 10:50 PM

Shortly before 5 pm earlier today, Enterprise, AL was hit by yet another damaging tornado, causing significant damage to the downtown civic center.  As many may recall, Enterprise was hit by an EF4 tornado on March 1, 2007, killing 9 people and injuring over 100..  This area has seen several tornadoes over the last few years, typically on the tail end of convective bands with mature mid-latitude cyclones when sufficient instability resides right along the Gulf Coast.  11 tornadoes were reported so far today, including another in Panama City Beach, FL..


Here is video of the monster tornado that struck Enterprise, AL last year...  I doubt today's tornado was even close to this intensity, at least based on the damage description so far.  I'll post the damage survey tomorrow as soon as it's available. 

Posted At: October 6, 2008 @ 10:15 AM

A classic high-shear/low-CAPE setup will materialize this afternoon from southeast KS, southward through central OK, into northern Texas, as a near vertically stacked storm system ejects from the Southern Rockies.  CAPE values will range from around 500 J/kg in Kansas, to as high as 1500 J/kg in Northwest Texas, but the best low-level shear will coexist with the low-CAPE areas.  The RUC forecast CAPE (left) and 850 mb flow (right) are displayed below.  As can be seen in the 850 mb map, I am a little worried that the best low-level jet will weaken slightly or move east of Oklahoma as storms develop later this afternoon along the I-35 corridor, but ~30 knots at 850 mb is still sufficient for tornadoes.

Posted At: October 5, 2008 @ 9:29 AM

A large precipitation shield has developed over the Southern High Plains overnight and has slowly moved east across the Texas Panhandle this morning.  Given very marginal moisture over this area, this precipitation will not intensify through morning, and should slowly dissipate by afternoon after limiting daytime heating.  The most untainted airmass will be near the southern end of the precipitation shield over extreme Southwest Texas and Southeast New Mexico, where dewpoints could approach 60F by peak heating.  Below are the morning RUC forecasts for CAPE and 850 mb flow for 00z this evening:

The RUC is forecasting CAPE values exceeding 1500 J/kg in the southwest Texas Panhandle by 00z, which is believable given that 60F dewpoints have already advected to the High Plains.  The only limiting factor will be cloud cover and precipitation limiting heating - we'll have to see how this plays out through afternoon for any good tornado threat.  I have a feeling the "energy" may eject too early before ample destabilization can take place, which will result in disorganized bands of convection flying out of New Mexico with only a straight-line wind threat.   The SPC has a 5% area for tornadoes across Southwest Texas and Southeast New Mexico, but also mention destabilization concerns.  Since I have to have my dissertation done by Oct 15, I'll likely be sitting this one out and wait for the next system, which hopefully will have more moisture to work with.  Check back for updates!